Rethink Foreign Exchange

Markets have not been so nervous since a very long time. Volatility on many currencies increased to over 20% during one week! On Tuesday, the American Congress rejected Paulson’s plan, which was designed to lift American banks from the crisis. The Congress did not like the idea to use public money ($700 billion) in order to cure the current situation. On Thursday though, the re-designed plan was accepted by the Senate. Everybody is holding their breath to see if it is going to work and if the

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The NFP came out much worse than expected on Friday, (Oct 3rd : Actual -159 K vs Forecast -85 K) while U.S. unemployment rate reminded at 6.1 % the worst last 5 years. Ahead of the vote for the Bailout plan, the market reactions seemed limited. Well, the U.S. Job data might have been “not so bad” as some analysts expected. we have been seeing these turbulent times that we have never experienced before. Fannie Mae,Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual. These big names have

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Financial Markets Summary For The Week of October 06 - October 10 The week of October 6-10 will see a light week of economic data that will be dominated by the Tuesday FOMC minutes from the September 16 meeting and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke speech that same day. Other data to be released during the week will be the Wednesday pending home sales report for August and the weekly initial claims data on Thursday. The week will close with the publication of the August trade balance and the September

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This is the big mover of the day: Today’s US non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly much better than expected. US payrolls data for April showed a decline of 20,000 jobs after a revised 81,000 decline in March. Although this marks the fourth consecutive of job losses in the US, it was much better than the 80,000 job decline expected by the majority of the market. In another encouraging sign, the unemployment rate also surprised, falling to 5% in April from 5.1% in March, versus an expected 5.2%.

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The NFP came out much better than expected on Friday, ( May 2nd : Actual -20 vs Forecast -78 ). We have seen the appreciation of the USD. The EUR/USD has moved down to the 1.5400 region, while the USD/JPY has moved up to the 105.00 region. Will we keep seeing theUSD recover with confidence or are we half- believed in what we have seen? This week has several explosive events. On schedule , we have Gearman factory orders, the central banks’ interest rate decisions and trade balances. It is worth

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Before we give the resurgence of the dollar too much credit let’s perform a reality check. As of Friday’s close at 1.5605 the euro had fallen slightly more than four big figures, or 2.5% against the dollar in just four days. The record high for the euro of 1.6020 came this past Tuesday. But since February the euro has risen 9.0% against the US currency. For the past five weeks the euro has been trading between 1.5500 and 1.5900 with one dip below and two attempts at the top; 1.5605 is just 100

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Tactical signals Points below are for April, EUR/USD 1.5660 -3 pts Buy on stop 1.5709, if done stop loss 1.5641 Buy on stop 1.5739, if done stop loss 1.5671 Buy on stop 1.5789, if done stop loss 1.5711 Sell on stop1.5571, if done stop loss 1.5619 GBP/USD 1.9940 -174 pts Long at 1.9829, stopped 1.9811 Long at 1.9879, stopped 1.9831 Buy on stop 1.9969, if done stop loss 1.9901 Buy on stop 1.9999, if done stop loss 1.9921 Buy on stop 2.0079, if done stop loss 2.0001 Sell on stop 1.9711, if done

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The expectations for the key nonfarm payroll data to be released today again feature a wide spectrum of expectations, with the surveyed estimates ranging from -150K to 79K. Overnight News Bullets NO Retail Sales MoM/YoY (FEB) out at 1.7%/5.6% vs 0.6%/4.4% exp. Prior -0.5%/3.6%. EC PMI Services (MAR) out at 51.6 vs 51.7 exp. Prior 51.7 EC PMI Composite (Mar) out at 51.8 vs 51.9 exp. Prior 51.9 UK PMI Services (Mar) out at 52.1 vs 53.3 exp. Prior 54.0 EC Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Feb) out

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The traders prefer to sell dollars at the end of very dynamic business week, a week where the dollar was widely losing. The euro set new trading record against the dollar at 1.5686. At the same time the Swiss Franc was trading for first time below 1.00 @ 0.9987. The Gold finally break above $1000 with new record @ 1006.70 just 30 minutes after New York opening. The traders run away by the dollar and turn all investments in other investments like Gold, Oil and other currencies. The Gold breaks

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The Lebanese Banking Sector In the banking sector, the consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks in Lebanon revealed a 0.99% monthly expansion in total banking sector assets to LBP 125,227 billion as at end of January 2008, up from LBP 123,999 billion in December 2007. Lebanon Raises $875 Million In A New Eurobond Issue According to the Lebanese Ministry of Finance, Lebanon raised some $875 million in new Eurobonds with a maturity of five years aiming at refinancing maturing debt. The

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